Usually the teams classification plays a minor role in stage races but like in most other aspects, the Tour de France is different in this respect. The title as the best team in the world's biggest race is a huge honour and many teams keep a firm eye on the classification throughout the race. While it is never the only pre-race target, no team will shy away from the possibility of standing on the podium in Paris with the entire team.

The teams classification is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team in each of the 21 stages. While the mountain stages and time trials play an almost equal role in the individual classification, the climbs and team tactics usually decide the teams classification, with the time trials only playing a minor role. The potential time differences between the three best riders are much larger in a tough mountain stage than they are in a time trial and so the teams with a realistic chance of taking the teams classification win are those with at least three strong climbers in their line-up.

Strength in numbers is much more important than an outstanding individual which is reflected in the winner's list. Radioshack won in both 2010 and 2012 and only had Chris Horner and Haimar Zubeldia in 9th and 5th as their best riders on GC. Garmin was crowned winner in 2011 despite Tom Danielson being the team's best GC rider in 8th. The most recent team to win both the GC and the teams classification was the excessively strong Astana team in 2009 which lined up Alberto Contador, Lance Armstrong, Andreas Klöden, Levi Leipheimer and Haimar Zubeldia in what was by far the strongest Tour team in recent years. In 2013 Tinkoff-Saxo took the title after having had both Alberto Contador and Roman Kreuziger in the top 5 while Ag2r took the win in 2014 when Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet were both in the top 6.

The other crucial factors are team tactics and aggressiveness. At some point during a grand tour, a breakaway is likely to stay clear all the way to the finish with a huge gap on the peloton. If a team misses out on such an opportunity, it is very unlikely to step onto the podium in Paris. Hence, a team with a sole focus on the GC has little chance of winning the teams classification as it is unlikely to allow domestiques to chase success in breakaways. This also explains while Sky has not been in contention for the win in 2012 and 2013 when they had really strong teams and in 2013 Tinkoff-Saxo would probably not have been in the running for the title if Contador had been in contention for the overall win as originally planned.

This year’s competition shapes up to be pretty exciting. Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana have some formidable teams that are all loaded with grand tour contenders. However, all three are going to France to win the race overall and will have no initial focus on the teams classification. Teams like Cannondale-Garmin, Ag2r, Trek, LottoNL-Jumbo and Lampre-Merida all have several strong climbers and depending on their GC prospects in the second half of the race, they may be more active in the breakaways.

On paper, there is no doubt that Sky have the best team of climbers but unless bad luck strikes for both Froome and Porte, they are likely to ride a very conservative race. They have never given the teams classification a single thought and whenever a domestique has finished his job, he will save as much energu as possible. There will be little room for breakaways and so they are unlikely to win the competition.

The same goes for Tinkoff-Saxo. With Alberto Contador, Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger, they probably have a stronger top trio than anybody else but their focus will be fully on Contador. Only if the Spaniard fades out of contention like in 2013 may the competition become an objective. Hence, the two strongest teams are unlikely to stand on the podium in Paris.

Instead we will put Movistar on top of our list of favourites. The Spanish team has two of the best climbers in the race as Nairo Quintana and Alejandro Valverde are both podium contenders. Furthermore, they usually have a much more aggressive tactics than Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo and unless they have a leader’s jersey to defend, they rarely miss a breakaway in the mountains. As Quintana is likely to lose a bit of time in the first week, they won’t have to control the race. Furthermore, we expect the Colombian to be slightly below Froome’s level in the mountains and if the overall victory is no longer a possibility, the teams classification could become a goal.

As usual, they have team with several strong climbers. Clearly they don’t have the same kind of depth as Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo and in the big stages for the GC riders, they will lose time. However, Winner Anacona, Jose Herrada, Gorka Izagirre and Jonathan Castroviejo have all been in the top 15 in grand tour mountain stages and so they should be able to limit their losses. Furthermore, those four riders are all strong enough to attack on the big days and with so many cards to play, they are unlikely to miss a move on a key day. Of course things will change if Quintana takes the overall lead but at the moment Movistar is our favourite.

The only team with four GC riders is LottoNL-Jumbo. Robert Gesink, Wilco Kelderman, Steven Kruijsijk and Laurens Ten Dam all have their eyes on the overall standings and they have all finished in the top 10 in a grand tour. However, some of them are likely to drop out of contention which may actually be a blessing in disguise when it comes to the teams classification as it will open the door to join some of the attacks. Especially Kruijswijk is a good option for an aggressive showing as it will be hard for him to go for GC as he did the Giro and he has done nothing to hide that the mountains jersey could be a goal.

Clearly, their four climbers are not potential winners of the race but with several riders to finish close to the best in the biggest mountain stages and a few to go on the attack, they should be in contention. The main problem is that the rest of the team doesn’t have much climbing prowess and so they will be vulnerable if one or two of their leaders is not at his best.

Ag2r are the defending champions and there is no doubt that a repeat win is one of their big goals. With Romain Bardet and Jean-Christophe Peraud both GC contenders, they have the top level to fight for the title and with Alexis Vuillermoz, Ben Gastauer and Jan Bakelants, they have three riders that are able to finish in the top 20 on the big mountain stages. If one adds Mikael Cherel and Christophe Riblon, they have seven strong climbers of which only Peraud and Bardet won’t be allowed to go on the attacks and everybody knows that they will try to join the breakaways.

A key rider will be Vuillermoz who finished 11th in last year’s Giro and seems to have taken another step up. If he can repeat that kind of performance, Ag2r will be a very strong contender. However, it will all depend on Peraud who is not in his best condition and even considered skipping the race. If he can’t fight with the best, they probably lack the top level climbers to win this competition.

Cannondale-Garmin also have several GC riders. Andrew Talansky, Daniel Martin and Ryder Hesjedal all have their eyes on the overall standings and they are all great top 10 candidates. However, the rest of the team is not composed of climbers so it will be left to the three GC riders to keep them in contention. If they are all in the running for a good GC result, they won’t have room to join breakaways and so they won’t win the teams classification. However, at least one of them is likely to lose time in the first week – Martin and Hesjedal are likely victims as they position themselves poorly – and this should give them more freedom. Furthermore, they have proved that they are ready to ride aggressively and we expect them to animate some of the mountain stages. With just three good climbers, they are very vulnerable but if all of them can be close to their best level, they will be a strong contender.

Among the big teams Sky, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana, the Russians probably have the best chance. Contador, Majka and Kreuziger might all try to keep their GC options open and this means that they will have three riders among the best in most of the mountain stages. Furthermore, we expect it to be hard for Contador to win the race, with the fatigue from the Giro likely to set him too much back. That could make the teams classification a goal and with strong climbers like Michael Rogers and Ivan Basso also on the roster, they have cards to play when it comes to join the breakaways.

As said, Sky probably have the best climbing team. Chris Froome is the best of them all and Richie Porte would have been a strong candidate if he hadn’t been riding as a domestique. Wout Poels was climbing amazingly well in the Dauphiné and Geraint Thomas has stepped up his level massively. Nicolas Roche and Leopold König are both former top 10 finishers in grand tours and Peter Kennaugh is just getting stronger and stronger. If Froome fades out of contention and Porte is not in the running for the overall win, they have their bases covered in the summit finishes and lots of riders to go on the attack.

While Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will be fully focused on the GC, there may be a bit more room at Astana to go on the attack. Vincenzo Nibali knows that he probably has to invent something to beat Froome and he has done nothing to hide that he will try to win the race by destroying Sky’s mathematical approach to the race. That involves a lot of attacking, not only by the race leader himself but also by his many super domestiques that can be used to put Sky under pressure.

However, his team is not as strong as Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo. Jakob Fuglsang will be the second GC option but he is not at Porte’s, Majka’s or Kreuziger’s level. Michele Scarponi seemed to be a bit off the pace in the Italian championships, Tanel Kangert cannot be expected to be at the same level as he was in the Giro and Rein Taaramae is hugely inconsistent. However, if Nibali and Fuglsang can be close to the best, the team is allowed to attack and Scarponi or Kangert can consistently finish in the top 20 in the mountain stages, they will have cards to play.

Katusha, Lampre-Merida, Trek and BMC loom as jokers but they probably miss the depth to really contend for the win.

*** Movistar

** LottoNL-Jumbo, Ag2r

* Cannondale-Garmin, Tinkoff-Saxo, Sky, Astana

Jokers: Katusha, Lampre-Merida, Trek, BMC