Nairo Quintana confirmed that he is currently the strongest rider in the race but it will be very hard for the tiny Colombian to dislodge Chris Froome from the overall lead. Furthermore, he still hasn’t won a stage and now he only has one chance left to achieve those two goals when the riders climb the famous 21 hairpin bends to Alpe d’Huez.

 

The course

In the past, the time triallists have always had the upper hand in the Tour de France. With the major climbs all being located far from the traditional finish in Paris, it was widely regarded as being impossible to have a big mountain stage on the penultimate day. To save the excitement for the final days, the organizers often had a time trial in either the final or the penultimate stage.

 

In 2009, a novelty was introduced when ASO made the brave decision of having a mountaintop finish on Mont Ventoux just one day before the end of the race, creating a logistical chaos by moving the entire Tour machine from one part of the country to the other in less than 24 hours. In 2010, 2011 and 2012 they went back to their traditional script before they again embraced the new idea in 2013 with a mountain stage finishing on the climb of Annecy/Semnoz on the penultimate day. Last year the time triallists again had the advantage of having a TT as the decisive stage but in a race dominated by climbing, it is only fitting that the 2015 edition of the race will be decided on the climbs.

 

Like in 2013, it will be a short and intensive stage in the Alps that will crown the winner of the race, with the organizers again embracing the concept of short mountain stages. They first came up with this idea in 2011 when they designed a 110.5km stage from Modane Valfrejus to the top of the famous Alpe d’Huez and it turned out to be one of the best stages of recent editions. The stage had a brutal start as the riders went straight up the Col du Telegraphe and the Col du Galibier before they descended to the bottom of the final climb and Alberto Contador accepted the invitation from the organizers by attacking already on the lower slopes of the Telegraphe, setting the scene for a huge GC battle that nearly cost Cadel Evans the overall victory.

 

Four years after that great stage, ASO had planned to use the exact same course for the penultimate stage but unfortunately they have been forced to change the route. A landslide has made it impossible to go up the Galibier and so the course had to be modified less than two weeks before the start of the race. The start and finish have not been changed and the overall distance is exactly the same, just 110.5km. However, the Telegraphe-Galibier duo has been replaced by the Col de la Croix de Fer which will be climbed for the second day in a row, albeit from another side.

 

Like in the original route, the riders will first follow gradually descending roads as they travel in a westerly direction to the city of St-Jean-de-Maurienne that hosted the finish of stage 18 and the start of stage 19. From here they will go up the category HC Col de la Croix de Fer (29km, 5.2%) but following a different route than the one they descended from in stage 19, skipping the Col du Mollard. The average gradient is deceptive as the climb can be split into two much harder parts. The first 12km mostly average 9-10% but there’s a small descent at the midpoint to give a small respite. The next 11km are almost flat before the riders get to the final 6km that have a rather constant gradient of 7-8%.

 

After the top, the riders will tackle the long descent to the city of Allemont which is not too technical. From here they will travel along flat roads for 10km before they get to the city of Bourg d’Oisans where they will rejoin the original route and contest the intermediate sprint. Here they will do a left-hand turn to hit the most famous climb in the recent Tour de France history, the category HC Alpe d’Huez (13.8km, 8.1%). The well-known 21 hairpin bends will be loaded with spectators who cheer on the riders as they tackle the final big climb of the race. The first two kilometres are hard at an average gradient of around 10% before it drops to 8-9% for the next 5km. An easier kilometre leads to a section with a gradient of 11.5% and another kilometre averaging 9%. The final 3km are the easiest as they average around 5%. The final switchback comes just before the flamme rouge and then the riders follow a mostly straight road that includes a roundabout until they turn left in another roundabout with 220m to go onto the 6m wide finishing straight.

 

In recent years, Alpe d’Huez has mostly featured on the course every second year, with just a few exceptions from the general rule. In 2013, the riders did the climb twice in the same stage and it was Christophe Riblon who took a surprise win from a breakaway. In 2011, Pierre Rolland took a breakthrough win in the white jersey on that dramatic day when Contador attacked right from the start. That year the climb was back after a two-year absence as the organizers wanted to honour the Pyrenees in the 2010 edition and so decided to postpone the usual passage of the climb for another year. In 2008, Carlos Sastre laid the foundations for his overall victory by attacking from the bottom of the climb and riding away with the stage win while his teammate Frank Schleck won from a breakaway in 2006. In 2004, Lance Armstrong won a memorable mountain time trial while Iban Mayo came out on top in 2003 as the climb featured on the course two years in a row. Armstrong also took the win in 2001 while it was Giuseppe Guerini who came back from a late collision with a spectator to take an impressive win in 1999. The climb also hosted the finish of a Dauphiné stage in 2010 when Alberto Contador won a two-rider sprint against overall victor Janez Brajkovic and it also featured on the course of a stage in the 2013 edition of the Alpine race, albeit not at the end of stage.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have mostly avoided the rain in the Alps and it is very unlikely that it will change tomorrow. Rain is forecasted for the morning but by the time the riders take the start, it is expected to be dry. It will be a partly cloudy day, with the sun coming through towards the end of the stage. The maximum temperature at the finish will be 16 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction. This means that there will be a crosswind in the flat first easy section while there will be a mix of a crosswind and tailwind on the Croix de Fer. There will be a crosswind on the descent and a tailwind in the valley. There will be a cross-headwind on the final climb.

 

The favourites

A very eventful start to stage 19 made it a highly promising race until it turned into a bit of an anti-climax in the finale. In the end, we got the expected showdown between Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana but it came way too late for Quintana to win the stage or gain a significant amount on Froome.

 

The battle confirmed the impression that Froome has again faded in the third week while Quintana seems to maintain his level. However, Froome is a master in pacing himself and limiting his losses and it still looks like only disaster can prevent him from winning the race.

 

At the same time, the battle for the podium positions is heating. Already yesterday we claimed that Vincenzo Nibali looked like one of the three strongest riders in the race. Today’s performance confirmed that assessment and even though his win was highly controversial due to the timing of his attack – which Froome described as unsportsmanlike – it was still an impressive ride by the defending champion who is not just 1.19 behind Valverde in the overall standings. Few would have expected him to be in this position when we left the Pyrenees a little more than a week ago.

 

Quintana and Nibali now have just one chance left to achieve their goals but it promises to be another highly entertaining affair. The organizers have been forced to change the penultimate stage to Alpe d’Huez but the inclusion of the Col de la Croix de Fer instead of the Telegraphe-Galibier combination doesn’t make it any easier. Furthermore, it is just 110.5km long which should make it another fast affair that is tailor-made for long-distance attacks.

 

Unlike today, the climbing doesn’t start right from the start as there are 25km of descending before the riders get to the Col de la Croix de Fer. This will make it more bearable for the heavy guys but it won’t make the start less aggressive. For half of the teams, this is their final real chance to win a stage and so they will all give it their all in an attempt to join the early move.

 

The dynamics of the race will be very interesting. There is no doubt that Chris Froome would love to win on Alpe d’Huez but he will be focused on the yellow jersey. After today’s poor Sky showing, he will hope for a big break to ride clear as early as possible. However, Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana all want to have riders up the road and the climbers all want to go on the attack so it won’t be easy.

 

Sometimes a break gets away relatively early and so it will be no surprise if some of the teams with strong climbers try to keep the situation under control until we get to the Croix de Fer. Here the attacking will start again and it will be possible for the best climbers to make a difference. We feel pretty sure that Thibaut Pinot, Pierre Rolland and Joaquim Rodriguez will make their move at this point and we should again get a strong group with the usual suspects and several riders from Movistar.

 

We are very curious to find out how Quintana will approach the stage. Does he believe that he can win the race overall or will he be content with a big stage win in Alpe d’Huez? He is very unlikely to take back enough time on the final climb so if he really wants to win overall he has to attack already on the Croix de Fer. However, that’s a risky move that could cost him the chance to win the stage.

 

Furthermore, there is no doubt that Contador will try another long-distance attack. Today his move on the Col de Chaussy failed and it will be hard for him to do what Nibali did today. He is closely marked by Valverde and Nibali won’t give him an inch either. At the moment, those two riders seem to be stronger than him so the Tinkoff-Saxo captain will probably have to settle for fifth.

 

It will also be interesting to see what tactic Nibali will use. He needs to gain 1.19 on Valverde to move onto the podium. It won’t be impossible to take that amount on the final climb as he is clearly stronger than Valverde at the moment. However, it won’t be easy and it may be a better idea for him to attack already on the Croix de Fer. However, he will now probably also be a bit more marked by Sky so it won’t be easy.

 

Today Froome relied heavily on a strong Wout Poels while the rest of his team was off the pace. That makes him vulnerable for tomorrow and may inspire his rivals to test him from further out. Hence, we won’t be surprised if Sky change tactics and try to put riders in the early move to have domestiques at his disposal if he gets under the attack on the Croix de Fer.

 

Romian Bardet knows that he has to get points on the Croix de Fer if he wants to win the mountains competition. There is no doubt that he will attack on that climb and this will make it harder for the breakaway to make it to the finish. In the last few stages, we have seen how teams are riding for the minor placings and a strong Steven Kruijswijk will be able to keep the Frenchman under control for Robert Gesink. Furthermore, Movistar still haven’t won a stage and even though their domestiques have been highly inconsistent, they are one of the strongest teams. Hence, they should be able to control things if Quintana decides to wait for the final climb. If he decides to attack from afar, it will only make it more difficult for the escapees as it will make the race extremely fast.

 

Hence, it is very likely that tomorrow’s stage will come down to a battle between the favourites. It is hard not to put Nairo Quintana on the top of the list of contenders for the stage win. In the second half of the race, the Colombian has been the strongest, just as it was the case in 2013. Back then, he managed to win the final mountain stage on the penultimate day and he would love to repeat that performance in Alpe d’Huez. A few days ago, he made it clear that this is his dream stage and the one that he has always targeted.

 

Tomorrow we expect Quintana to make his move much earlier, at least if he is riding for the overall win. The final three kilometres are easy so he has to make his move at least before we get to the flatter finale. However, two things can still prevent Quintana from winning the stage. First of all there will be a headwind which will make it harder to make a difference. Secondly, a brave move from far out could turn out to be fatal, especially with that kind of wind. However, if Quintana decides to ride conservatively, he will be hard to beat.

 

The only rider that can challenge Quintana in a head-to-head battle is of course Chris Froome. Today he was not able to match the Colombian but he was not far off the mark. The Brit will be assisted by the headwind and he is excellent at gauging his effort on this kind of climb. Today he kept the gap relatively stable until he lost a bit of ground in the finale and always had to keep in mind that he had to save something for tomorrow. In fact we think that he rode pretty conservatively because he has always wanted to win the stage to Alpe d'Huez. Tomorrow he won't hold anything back and we wouldn't even be surprised if he asks his team to keep it together for him to win the stage. Froome has proved that he is the best climber in this race and when he finally decides to go full gas again, it will be hard for anyone to follow. Furthermore, he is faster than Quintana in a sprint if those two riders arrive at the finish together. That makes Froome our favourite to win the stage.

 

In the last few days, it has been evident that Vincenzo Nibali is the third best rider in the race. With his long-distance attack, we didn’t get the chance to see how he will fare in a direct battle with the two main contenders but tomorrow we may get the chance. It won’t be easy for him to win the stage but he can benefit from the tactical battle. If Quintana and Froome are unable to distance each other, he could be the rider to counter their moves and as he is far behind on GC, they won’t be immediately concerned. Furthermore, it is not entirely impossible that he tries another long-distance attack and even though it will be very hard to repeat that performance, you can never rule out another excellent showing by the Italian.

 

As said Romain Bardet will have to attack if he wants to win the mountains jersey. The Frenchman has really turned his race around in an impressive way. Despite having been on the attack, he still seemed to be one of the best in the finale where only Contador, Valverde, Froome, Nibali and Quintana seemed to be stronger. If he can get to the summit of the Col de la Croix de Fer in the first position, he has the descending skills to extend his advantage and then he won’t be easy to catch on the final climb.

 

Thibaut Pinot has had a highly inconsistent race. After a great performance in stage 17, he faded dramatically yesterday, claiming that he paid the price for his crash two days ago. Today he bounced back with a great ride and tomorrow he will go all out in a final attempt to win the stage. Unlike Bardet, he doesn’t have the advantage of great descending skills but he is clearly one of the best climbers in the race. Expect Pinot to deliver a brave performance.

 

The same goes for Pierre Rolland. The Europcar leader has been very visible in the last few stages. Until now, it hasn’t paid off in terms of wins but now he has moved himself into the top 10. However, he has never had a conservative approach so there is no doubt that he will try to repeat the win he took here in 2011. Of course he must start to feel the fatigue but at this point in a grand tour the same riders always come to the fore.

 

Alejandro Valverde will be mostly focused on defending his podium place but it won’t be impossible for him to win the stage too. As said, the final three kilometres are relatively easy and if Quintana and Froome can’t get rid of each other, it may come down to a sprint from a small group, especially as there is a headwind. In that case no one will be able to match Valverde who could be the Movistar rider to break the drought.

 

Andrew Talansky has been in the break twice in a row and today he tried again. This time he missed out but there is no doubt that he will try again tomorrow. He has made it clear that he is not concerned with GC and that his only goal is to win a stage. As always, he is getting stronger towards the end of a grand tour and tomorrow could be his day to shine.

 

Another rider with a diesel engine is Samuel Sanchez. We were pretty surprised that he didn’t try to attack from afar in today’s stage. He really has nothing to lose so he should try tomorrow after coming up short in this finish four years ago. He would have preferred a longer stage as he usually gets better throughout the day but if he can get an advantage on the Croix de Fer, he can use his great descending skills to extend his advantage.

 

Astana will try to have riders in the early break and they have three in-form climbers that could all be in the mix. Jakob Fuglsang, Tanel Kangert and Michele Scarponi have all been on the attack in recent days and especially the latter is riding very well. Their main goal will be to help Nibali but if they get the chance to g for the win, they are strong enough to finish it off.

 

The same goes for Rafal Majka. The Pole probably has to stay with Contador but the team may also decide to send him on the attack. If Contador’s attacks fail or if he doesn’t have the legs to try, the door could be open for Majka to give it a go. He is clearly one of the best climbers in the race and is strong enough to finish it off.

 

Steven Kruijswijk was not satisfied with his performance in the early part of the race but now his legs have come around. Today he was one of the strongest riders in the race and there is a big chance that we again find himself in the break. Today he was asked to drop back to support Gesink and that could again be the case, especially if Bardet goes on the attack. However, if he is free to ride for himself, he can win the stage.

 

Today Warren Barguil dropped out of top 10 contention so his goal now is to win a stage. He seems to be fading slightly which is a bit unusual as he has often been stronger in the third week. However, he has clearly not cracked completely and history shows that he is hard to hold back at the end of a three-week race.

 

Finally Winner Anacona deserves a mention. The Colombian was amazingly strong in the first two Alpine stages but today he paid the price. If he is on a similarly bad day he won’t be in contention but if he has found his best legs back, he will be a dark horse. Movistar want to have riders in the early break and that has often opened the door for them to go for the stage win.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Chris Froome

Other winner candidates: Nairo Quintana, Vincenzo Nibali

Outsiders: Romain Bardet, Thibaut Pinot, Pierre Rolland, Alejandro Valverde

Jokers: Andrew Talansky, Tanel Kangert, Michele Scarponi, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, Steven Kruijswijk, Warren Barguil, Winner Anacona, Alberto Contador