As expected, Nairo Quintana only briefly tested Chris Froome in today’s stage to see if there were any signs of weakness but he preferred to save his energy for the final two days in the Alps. However, the waiting time is now over as the final two mountain stages have always been where he wants to make his moves and tomorrow there will be no holding back in the short, intense stage 19 that is loaded with the long climbs that the Colombian prefers.

 

The course

In 2011, the Tour de France introduced a novelty when they designed a very short stage between Mondane Valfrejus and Alpe d’Huez. It created an exciting race as the favourites were not afraid of the distance and so attacked each other right from the start. Since then, the idea of short, intensive mountain stages have been very popular and all the grand tours have repeatedly made use of the concept.

 

This year ASO have designed two short, very tough rides in the Alps to decide the winner of the world’s biggest race and in fact it was initially the plan to end the battles with an exact copy of that famous 2011 stage. Even though the penultimate stage has gained most of the attention, it will be dangerous to underestimate stage 19 which is probably just as hard as the stage that finishes at the top of the famous Alpe.

 

At just 138km, it is a very short affair and it should provide some aggressive racing right from the start. At least the  organizers have given the riders the terrain to go on the attack as the first 15.4km go up the category 1 Col du Chaussy (15.4km, 6.3%). It is a pretty regular climb with rather constant gradients of 6-8%, only disrupted by a small descent after 3km of climbing.

 

After the top, the riders go down a technical descent that leads back to the L’Arc river which passes through the starting city of Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne. They will now continue their northerly journey by following the flat road along the river until they get to the intermediate sprint at the 42km mark. The road is descending before it flattens out for the final kilometre and the sprint comes at the end of a long, straight road.

 

One kilometre after the sprint, the riders will cross the river before turning around to head back along the flat roads on the other side until they get to the city of Saint-Etienne-de-Cuines at the 58.5km. That city spells the end of the flat riding as the final part of the stage is either up or down.

 

First the riders leave the river to go up the might category HC climb of Col de la Croix de Fer (22.4km, 6.9%). It is known as one of the hardest climbs in the Alps. After a very regular start with a constant gradient of 7% for 8km, the riders get to an easy section of 3km before they get to the hardest part where the gradient hovers around 9-10% for 8km. The final three kilometres are slightly easier.

 

The summit comes 55km from the finish and is followed by a descent that has a technical upper section. Before they get back to the valley, they will go up the category 2 Col du Mollard (5.7km, 6.8%) whose summit is located just 35km from the finish. They will now take on the final part of the descent which is significantly more difficult before they get back to Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne after 119km of racing.

 

Instead of going back to the start, the riders will end the stage by tackling the category 1 climb to the ski resort of La Toussuire (18km, 6.1%). The first three kilometres are the hardest and then the gradient stays around 6% for most of the time, with a short flat section at the midpoint giving a chance to recover. The final three kilometres are easier as they average 4-5%. There’s a hairpin bend just after the flamme rouge and then the riders turn right to get onto the 170m finishing straight on a 5.5m wide road.

 

La Toussuire made its debut as a stage finish in the 2006 Tour de France where Michael Rasmussen completed a solo ride to win the stage while Oscar Pereiro defended his overall lead and Floyd Landis famously cracked, losing almost 10 minutes to his main rivals. In 2012 Pierre Rolland took his second Tour de France stage win by holding off Thibaut Pinot, Chris Froome, Jurgen Van den Broeck, Vincenzo Nibali and Bradley Wiggins in a stage that is mostly known for the fact that Froome attacked in the finale, briefly dropping Wiggins. It has been used three times in the Criterium du Dauphiné, with Iban Mayo, Chris Anker Sørensen and Joaquim Rodriguez winning in 2006, 2008 and 2011 respectively. It last hosted a major bike race in 2014 when Louis Vervaeke confirmed his huge potential by winning the final stage of the Tour de l’Avenir at the ski resort.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the last two days, there has been a pretty big risk of rain in the finale but until now the riders have had dry roads for their stay in the Alps. The weather forecast for tomorrow is pretty similar but this time the chance of precipitation is bigger.

 

It will be a sunny morning but by the time the riders get onto their bikes, it is expected to be relatively cloudy. Throughout the entire stage there is a 60-75% risk of rain, with the probability increasing as the day goes on. The maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb will be 31 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a tailwind until the turn around after the intermediate sprint. From there it will be a headwind or a cross-headwind until they hit the bottom of the Col du Mollard. There will be a tailwind for most of that climb and the descent. On the final climb, there will first be a headwind while there will mainly be a tailwind in the second part.

 

The favourites

Romain Bardet continued his highly irregular Tour de France by taking a memorable stage win and riding himself back into the top 10. Yesterday he suffered from a hunger knock and so his performance was not indicative of his true level. Today he proved that he has the legs to distance the best and that he deserves to end the race in the top 10.

 

While Bardet rode away with the win, the GC riders tested each other a bit. Alberto Contador made his planned long-distance attack but as Michael Rogers and Roman Kreuziger didn’t have the legs to stay in front, he didn’t have any teammates to assist him and so it all came to nothing. Vincenzo Nibali tried a few digs but got a lot less space from Movistar and Sky while Nairo Quintana made a single attempt on the Glandon but quickly realized that he got nowhere.

 

Already yesterday Movistar had clearly indicated that today was just a day to survive and that their main stages come during the next two days. The final two days in the Alps both have summit finishes and are loaded with long climbs. Those are the kind of ascents that Quintana likes and there is no doubt that he has been motivated by the last few days. While Sky are still strong and Geraint Thomas bouced back from a few bad days with a great ride today, there have been chinks in the race leader’s armour. Already yesterday Quintana seemed to have the upper hand on the climb to Pra-Loup and today Froome was even briefly dropped when Nibali attacked on the Lacets de Montvernier. Afterwards, he admitted that it had been a very tough day and seemed to be more pleased with his team than with himself.

 

It is no big surprise that Froome is starting to show some signs of weakness. In fact, he has never done a grand tour without fading in the final week (the 2014 Vuelta was a very special case as he arrived at that race in a pretty poor condition) while Quintana has traditionally become stronger and stronger. It won’t be easy to challenge Froome but there is no doubt that Movistar are going to try.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is very short and this means that it is a likely to be a very aggressive and fast affair. The fact that it starts with a tough climb means that it will explode right from the beginning and the time cut will be a big threat for the heavy guys. With such a short distance, many riders dare to attack from afar and so we can expect a very entertaining first climbs, with a splintering peloton and constant attacks.

 

With a pretty long valley section, it will be too early for the main riders to make a move. Even though he is desperate, even Alberto Contador is probably wise enough to save his energy for the Croix-de-Fer. However, the riders just below the best riders will all be keen to attack and we should see another big group get clear after the hectic opening. It will be made up of the usual suspects who have proved to be the strongest at this point of the race and it will probably resemble the one that decided today’s stage.

 

At the same time, the big teams will do their best to have riders in the front. Movistar, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana are unlikely to miss out. It will be interesting to see whether Sky plan to stay with Froome or if they prefer to have riders on the attack as they had yesterday when Porte and Roche ended in the break by coincidence.

 

Froome only has one stage win but tomorrow will be a day of riding defensively. If he feels good, he will go for glory on Alpe d’Huez but tomorrow Sky will do nothing to bring the early break back. However, Movistar still haven’t won a stage and this is probably the one that suits Quintana the best. Furthermore, they can’t allow a break to take the bonus seconds again so we expect the Spanish team to control the situation. That means that it is most likely to be a day for a breakaway but with a short stage and a very tough start, it won’t be easy to catch what is likely to be a strong escape.

 

The battle will probably start already on the Croix-de-Fer which is clearly the hardest climb in the stage. The second half is very tough and can do a lot of damage. We will be hugely surprised if Contador doesn’t try his usual long-distance move already at this point and Vincenzo Nibali is also likely to give it a try. There are no flat roads in the second half so it will be the perfect day to attack from the distance.

 

This means that Quintana may also be inspired to try from afar. Movistar will probably have put riders in the front group and if he is really riding to win the race, he simply has to try from the distance. The headwind won’t make it any easier for him but we wouldn’t be surprised to see him give it a go.

 

If Froome is not at 100%, it will be interesting to see whether he will stay with a very strong Geraint Thomas like he did today or whether he will try to follow Quintana. If he chooses the second tactic, we could be in for a great pursuit that will spell the end for the early breakaway. However, Thomas and Froome are great at pacing themselves and slowly reel in attackers so it will be very difficult to finish off this kind of long-distance attack. Hence, the most likely scenario is that it will come down to a battle on the final climb which is not very hard. The first half is pretty tough but the second half never gets very steep and the difference has to be made before they get to the final 3km which are easy.

 

In the second week, Chris Froome seemed to have everything under control but now it seems that the hierarchy has changed. In the last few days, Quintana has had the upper hand. Froome has been riding defensively, allowing gaps to open before slowly reeling in the attacks, and he has only made his own attack once. That’s very unusual for the aggressive Brit.

 

On the other hand, Quintana is getting stronger and the fact that he was the one to accelerate close to the summit of the Pra-Loup climb, indicates that things have changed. Usually, Froome would have sprinted to the line but this time he was content with following wheels. If he is suffering, Froome will be more focused on limiting his losses than going into the red to follow Quintana. Hence, the Colombian is our favourite to win the stage.

 

However, Quintana has to make the difference in the steep section. If the two riders are together in the final 3km, it will probably come down to a sprint finish. In that case Froome is the fastest. Furthermore, it is always dangerous to underestimate the Brit in this kind of finish. In his interviews, he has claimed to have very good legs and even though he set a more cautious tone today, there is little doubt that he is feeling stronger at this point of the race than he did two years ago. If he sees a chance to go on the attack, there is no doubt that he will try to discourage his rivals by winning tomorrow’s stage.

 

Today Alejandro Valverde showed his first signs of weakness. That was no major surprise as he has always suffered a bit on the very long climbs. Hence, tomorrow’s stage is not tailor-made for him and he is likely to get dropped when Quintana and Froome go on the offensive. However, he is a master in limiting his losses and knows his limits better than anyone else. If the two main riders are unable to distance each other, he may get back in the final 3 easy kilometres. If that’s the case, he will be very hard to beat in a sprint.

 

We are curious to see how Vincenzo Nibali will approach tomorrow’s stage. He can move into the top 5 by riding relatively defensively but he can also try a long-distance move to maybe get onto the podium. He has been very strong in the last few stages and today he maybe even looked like the strongest rider in the race. He is not in contention for the overall win so Froome and Quintana won’t be too concerned with him if he attacks in the finale. A resurgent Nibali definitely has a chance to win tomorrow’s stage.

 

Alberto Contador will stake everything into a long-distance attack with an all-or-nothing attitude. It will be very hard to finish it off but if anyone is strong enough to do so, it has to be the Spaniard. Today his plans were derailed by a surprisingly poor performance by Rogers and Kreuziger. On the other hand, Rafal Majka was very strong. If the Pole gets into the early break, Contador has a perfect ally up the road. Froome has proved that he doesn’t care about the Spaniard and this could make it possible for Contador to bounce back in the most grandiose way.

 

If a breakaway makes it, Samuel Sanchez looks like a very good pick. The Spaniard has been riding extremely well in this race and is always getting better towards the end of a grand tour. With Tejay van Garderen out of the race, he is free to ride for himself. His current 15th place is worthless for him so he will be chasing a stage win and a top 10 spot. To reach that goal, he needs to go on the attack and we will be surprised if he doesn’t find himself in the right group. He loves these long climbs where he can pace himself to the top and if we get wet roads in the finale, he will be able to extend his advantage dramatically on the descents in the finale.

 

Jakob Fuglsang was taken out by a motorcycle in today’s stage. That was a hugely frustrating experience for the Dane who looked like the strongest rider on the Glandon. Tomorrow he will definitely try again. He is not too badly hurt from his crash. Of course today’s effort has cost him some energy but at this point in a grand tour, it is always the same riders that are in the mix. At the moment, Fuglsang is clearly one of the strongest so he is evidently one of the favourites.

 

The same goes for Pierre Rolland. Today he came up short against a very strong Romain Bardet but he bounced back well after a few disappointing days. Tomorrow’s stage is tailor-made for him as it is loaded with the long climbs that he really loves and with a tough start we will be very surprised if he doesn’t end up in the right move. He has already won in La Toussuire once and he would love to repeat that performance.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez claims to have suffered a hunger knock in today’s stage. As expected he was in the early break but he cracked spectacularly on the Col du Glandon. If that explanation is true, he should return to his best tomorrow. As he aims for the mountains jersey, he has to be in the break and with a tough start he will be there. In the Pyrenees, he bounced back great from two bad days with a stage win. Tomorrow he will try to do so again and repeat the win he took in La Toussuire in the 2011 Dauphiné.

 

Michele Scarponi has clearly found some amazing legs in the second part of the race. The Italian has been a valuable assistance for Nibali as he has managed to stay with the best until only the elite is left. Yesterday he tried to join the early break and tomorrow he may again be given some freedom, especially if Nibali wants riders up the road. If he gets the chance to ride for himself, there is a very big chance that he will be the strongest rider on the final climb.

 

Winner Anacona was not at his best at the start of this race but he has gradually found some form. Already yesterday he was among the very best as he was just behind the main group at the top of the Col d’Allos and today he rode strongly in the break. Movistar will try to put their in-form Colombian into the early break to have riders up the road and this could open the door for him to chase the stage win.

 

Already yesterday it was clear that Bob Jungels is in outstanding condition but we were still pretty surprised to see him getting rid of so many strong climbers on the Col du Glandon. Tomorrow’s final climb suits him even better as it is less steep and very long. That’s perfect for a diesel engine like Jungels who is very likely to find himself in the early break.

 

Thibaut Pinot again hit the right break in today’s stage but apparently he is starting to show signs of fatigue. He was clearly not at the excellent level he showed yesterday and seemed to be demoralized when he was dropped. However, he has hit all the key breaks in the last few stages and was in a class of his own on the Col d’Allos. His legs are definitely good and he is usually more comfortable in cold weather. With rain forecasted for the finale, he should be better and so there is a solid chance that he will finally take that elusive stage win.

 

As said, we expect Rafal Majka to go on the attack to help Contador and so he is unlikely to get the chance to play his own card. However, there is always a chance that things change and this could open the door for the Pole to go for the win, especially if Contador does not feel 100% ready to make his planned attack. Today Majka was very strong and he has often proved that he knows now to finish his attacks off in the most spectacular fashion.

 

Andrew Talansky has been on the attack two days in a row and his legs have clearly come around. His diesel engine is perfectly suited to tomorrow’s long climbs and it is hard to imagine that he won’t be in the early break. Until now, he has always come up short against stronger riders but as fatigue starts to set in, the American should shine.

 

Mathias Frank, Warren Barguil and Romain Bardet are involved in a close fight for the top 10 positions and so will mark each other heavily. That will make it harder for them to escape. On the other hand, the strongest riders will make a difference in this kind of tough beginning so we won’t be surprised to see those three riders in the early break. If that’s the case, they are all strong enough to finish it off.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Nairo Quintana

Other winner candidates: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde

Outsiders: Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Samuel Sanchez, Jakob Fuglsang, Pierre Rolland, Joaquim Rodriguez

Jokers: Michele Scarponi, Tanel Kangert, Winner Anacona, Bob Jungels, Thibaut Pinot, Rafal Majka, Andrew Talansky, Mathias Frank, Warren Barguil, Romain Bardet