The Criterium du Dauphiné is known as one of the most mountainous races on the calendar but before the climbers get a chance to shine, the strongest sprinters and classics specialists usually have a couple of opportunities. With no prologue in the 2015 edition of the French race, those riders will be keen to grab one of those already on the first day but to get the chance to take the first yellow jersey they will have to survive a significant amount of climbing that will send most of the fast finishers out the back door.

 

The course

After the 2013 race started with a road stage, the Criterium du Dauphiné was back to tradition in 2014 when it kicked off with a short time trial. This year there will be no individual time trial at all and so the race will again start with a road stage. Like in 2013, it won’t be a day for the GC riders to make their mark and instead the strong sprinters will relish a unique chance to go for the lead in one of the most mountainous races on the calendar.

 

At just 131.5km, the opening stage is a very short affair that is held almost entirely on a circuit in Albertville. Starting in Ugine, the riders head south along flat roads to the finishing city where they will do a small circuit on the southeasterly outskirts, with the category 4 Cote d’Esserts-Blay (1.4km, 6.9%) at the 17km mark being the only small challenge.

 

Back in Albertville, the riders will cross the finish line for the first time after 33km of racing and will then do one lap of a big 19.5km circuit. It is mostly flat but includes the day’s main challenge, the category 3 Cote du Villard (1.2km, 8.7%). After the top, there will be no descent and instead the riders will head almost straight onto the category 4 Cote du Cruet (2.3km, 4.9%) before they descend to flat roads that lead back to the finish.

 

The final part of the stage consists of 5 laps of a 15.5km circuit that is almost identical to the big circuit the riders have already done once. The only difference is the fact that the riders won’t go up the Cote du Cruet after the Cote du Villard. Instead, they will descend back to the flat roads that lead to the finish. The summit of the climb comes 12km before the riders cross the line.

 

Albertville has often hosted a stage start in the Criterium du Dauphiné but it has not been used as a finishing city for more than a decade. It last hosted the finish of a major stage race in 1998 when Jan Ullrich bounced back from his breakdown earlier in the race by winning a tough mountain stage of the Tour de France.

 

 

 

 

The weather

As the first major race in the summer, the Criterium du Dauphiné has often been marked by very hot conditions. This year it seems that it may be an unusual edition of the French event as the weather forecast predicts a bit of rain and pretty low temperatures for most of the week.

 

The first stage is most likely to take place under a beautiful sunny sky and with the early stage finish, the riders are unlikely to have to deal with any rain. However, showers are forecasted for the afternoon and so there is a risk that the riders will have to deal with wet roads in the finale. The temperature will reach a maximum of 21 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a cross-tailwind in the first part and a cross-headwind as they return to Albertville for the circuits. Here there will be a headwind on the climb and a crosswind on the descent. Then the riders will turn into a tailwind and then there will be a crosswinds section that leads to the finishing straight where there will be a cross-headwind.

 

The favourites

Before ASO took over the reins, the Criterium du Dauphiné was a race of tradition with a very similar build-up every year. One of the mainstays on the course was the opening prologue which always gave the time triallists a chance to ride themselves into yellow on the first day. However, ASO have changed the format a lot and for the second time in just three years, the opener won’t be a time trial.

 

This means that the GC riders will have to wait a few days before they get the first chance to create some time gaps. With a total of six passages of the Cote du Villard over a short distance, the opening stage is pretty hard and certainly won’t be a day for the pure sprinters. However, none of the really fast guys have travelled to France for this week’s race which never offers much for those riders. Instead, the many classics riders and stronger sprinters will be keen to go for glory in a stage that suits them well.

 

First stages of a stage race are often pretty tricky, especially in a race where there is no obvious favourite. There’s no overall leader in the race and so it is not obvious who is going to control the race. On this kind of course, nobody really knows what to expect. If the riders go fast on the Cote du Villard, it will be too hard for most of the sprinters as it will be repeated several times. That may prompt their teams to take a back seat and leave the chase work to others. This can create a bit of anarchy and it is not unusual for an early break to make it to the finish in a hilly opening road stage. That has happened twice in the Volta a Catalunya in just four years and when the Dauphiné last started with a road stage in 2013, it was David Veilleux who rode himself into yellow by being the strongest from a breakaway.

 

A similar scenario is definitely possible in this year’s opener. Most teams are mainly here for the GC and they will be keen to save as much energy for the team time trial which is the first big team for the overall contenders. Furthermore, the uncertainty about the toughness of the climb will make the teams of the sprinters hesitant. Finally, such a short stage needs to be controlled pretty firmly, especially with six short climbs along the way, and the gap cannot be allowed to be too big at any point.

 

Much will depend on what happens in the early part of the stage. As a break may have a chance, we could see an aggressive and fast start to the race. This will make it hard to control and if a strong group goes clear, they may never be seen again. If the sprint teams throw in the towel, Sky will probably take control to avoid losing the race but with four big mountain stages, there will be plenty of room to take back time so they have no incentive to bring the break back.

 

The key teams are Orica-GreenEDGE, Lampre-Merida, Cofidis, MTN-Qhubeka, Giant-Alpecin and Etixx-QuickStep who all have fast finishers that can win this kind of stage. Orica-GreenEDGE and Etixx-QuickStep are mainly here for stage wins and with Simon Gerrans and Julian Alaphilippe, they both have potential winners of this stage. Lampre-Merida are focused on the GC but also have an in-form Sacha Modolo on the roster. Finally, Giant-Alpecin’s main goal is to win a stage with Luka Mezgec and this is one of three opportunities to do so. MTN-Qhubeka are mainly here for stage wins and this looks as a good one for Edvald Boasson Hagen. Finally, Cofidis are led by Nacer Bouhanni but it remains to be seen whether the Frenchman is strong enough to survive the climbs.

 

With a yellow jersey at stake, the sprint teams will have an extra incentive to try to bring the break back and with lots of teams interested in a sprint finish, the most likely outcome is that it will be brought back together. However, the finale will be very difficult to control as the riders will go up the Cote du Villard twice inside the final 30km. New attacks are bound to be launched and a late move may be strong enough to make it to the finish.

 

It will be interesting to see how the climb will be raced the final times. Sky may want to set their usual fast pace to make sure that Chris Froome is safe and this could be detrimental to the sprinters. Furthermore, Orica-GreenEDGE may want to get rid of the sprinters to enhance Gerrans’ chances in a sprint. Etixx-QuickStep may have similar pace as Julian Alpahilippe needs a hard race to really excel.

 

The 2015 season has been terrible for Simon Gerrans. The Australian crashed even before the season had started and missed his title defences at the national championships and the Tour Down Under. Another crash in Strade Bianche meant that he was not at his best for the Ardennes classics and it was all topped with another tumble in Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He finally had some success when he took the maglia rosa after the team time trial at the Giro d’Italia but the Italian grand tour ended badly as he crashed on stage 12 in which he was the protected rider and one of the favourites.

 

Luckily Gerrans didn’t suffer any major injuries and he has prepared well for the Tour de France which is his next big goal. He will do the Dauphiné to get back up to racing speed and he should have a number of opportunities to take that elusive first victory. Stages 1 and 6 seem to be his best chances and he should be the protected Orica-GreenEDGE rider tomorrow. He is known as a master in picking and achieving select goals and if he has set his eyes on the opening stage, he will be hard to beat.

 

As an Ardennes specialist, he should be very strong in this terrain and unlike the sprinters he won’t get distanced. Furthermore, he is very fast in reduced bunch sprints – remember how he beat Peter Sagan in a sprint at the end of stage 3 of the 2013 Tour de France – and he is supported by a formidable team. He can rely on Daryl Impey to lead him out while Ivan Santaromita and the Yates brothers will be on hand to make it hard for the sprinters if necessary. If Impey can really nail the lead-out as he has done so many times in the past, it may be time for Gerrans to finally open his account.

 

On paper, the fastest rider in this race is Nacer Bouhanni. The Frenchman will lead Cofidis both in this race and the Tour de France and he is keen to finally get a bit of success after what has been a difficult first time at his new team. He finally opened his account in April after several near-misses but he hasn’t achieved the number of victories that was expected. Most recently he came up short in Bayern Rundfahrt, World Ports Classics and the Boucles de l’Aulne where his team failed to bring back the early break.

 

Among the fast finishers, Bouhanni is one of the best climbers and he has actually certain ambitions for the Ardennes classics. Last year he nearly won a very hard stage of the Vuelta a Espana that was dominated by GC riders and was too hard for riders like Michael Matthews. At this time last year, he was fighting against the likes of Alejandro Valverde in the Pyrenees at the Route du Sud. With the Tour de France coming up, he should be close to that level and if that’s the case, he should be able to survive the climbs. If he’s there at the finish, he will be the man to beat.

 

Another sprinter who climbs really well, is Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian has made these sprint stages in hard races his specialty as evidenced by this three stage wins in last year’s Volta a Catalunya and he will be keen to make up for a disappointing Giro d’Italia. In the Italian grand tour, he was climbing really well and survived for a long time in the very hard stage to Monte Berico, proving his excellent condition. In the Tour de Romandie, he also survived some very tough climbing and unless the pace is very fast, this stage should not be too hard for him. He clearly missed a bit of speed in the Giro but seemed to get better towards the end of the race. He doesn’t have the best lead-out in this race but he is usually good at positioning himself in a smaller bunch. If he survives the climbs, he will be one of the fastest in the end.

 

Unlike Mezgec, Sacha Modolo had a highly successful Giro d’Italia and he will be keen to continue his run of success in France. However, he will have a harder time in the Dauphiné. In the Giro, the difference was made by his strong lead-out train but in this race, he will only have Filippo Pozzato to support him. That will make things significantly more difficult. He is a good climber but Bouhanni and Mezgec are probably stronger in this terrain. Furthermore, the non-technical finish doesn’t really suit him. The odds are not on another Modolo win but as he is one of the fastest in the race, he will of course be a contender.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen got his spring season destroyed by a crash in Gent-Wevelgem that forced him to miss most of the races he has prepared so hard for. He returned to competition in the Tour of Norway and as usual the talented Norwegian was in good condition right from the start. He was a strong GC contender in his national tour and finally broke his drought in the Tour des Fjords when he escaped with three other riders on the final stage before winning the four-rider sprint. This terrain won’t be too hard for him but he is no longer as fast as he once was. On certain occasions, he sprinted really well in Norway but in other stages, it was evident that he missed a bit of speed. To win this stage, he needs to get rid of the really fast guys but if MTN-Qhubeka can achieve that goal, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Cannondale-Garmin are mainly here to try to win the race with Andrew Talansky but the team may also play a role in the sprint stages. Ramunas Navardauskas and Nathan Haas are both fast and will take their chance on the flatter days. While the latter is probably not fast enough, the former has turned himself into a really fast guy who even finished third on the Champs-Elysees last year. Furthermore, he is very strong in this hilly terrain. His condition should be okay after he worked well in the Bayern Rundfahrt. His main problem is his poor positioning but if the race turns out to be selective, the bunch will be smaller and then he will have a chance.

 

Julian Alaphilippe has had an amazing season and the sky is clearly the limit for the impressive Frenchman. It remains to be seen whether he will go for GC in this race or whether he will focus on stages and for now he says that he will take it day by day. He will get a first chance to take a stage win on the opening day whose course suits him well. The Frenchman is very strong on shorter climbs and he is a fast sprinter who knows how to position himself. He got close in some of the sprints in the Tour de Romandie and he hopes to do better here. To have a chance, he needs to get rid of the pure sprinters. He is not as fast as Gerrans and this will make it hard for him to win but with the talented Frenchman, you never know.

 

Kris Boeckamns has had a remarkable season in which he has finally fulfilled his potential after a couple of injury-marred years. He has already won a total of nine races and with overall victories in the Tour de Picardie and the World Ports Classic, he is clearly in great condition. This stage should be a bit too hard for him but if he is there at the finish, he will be one of the fastest.

 

Samuel Dumoulin, Kevin Reza, Alexei Tsatevich, Tosh van der Sande, Yannick Martinez and Daniel Oss are all the kind of sprinters who can survive this kind of climbing. None of them are pure sprinters and they won’t have a chance against the really fast riders. They are all the kind of riders who often find themselves in the top 10 in the sprints but rarely win. Furthermore, they don’t have a real lead-out train to put them into position. They are unlikely to win but could create a surprise.

 

If the race turns out to be too hard for their sprinters, Simon Geschke, Julien Simon and Filippo Pozzato will be ready to sprint. They are all fast in a sprint but need a pretty small group to really excel. However, they are all very strong in this kind of terrain and may also go on the attack in the finale. If they can make it into a small group over the top of the final climb, they will be hard to beat in a sprint.

 

As said, Orica-GreenEDGE are likely to be riding for Gerrans in this stage but they may also focus on Daryl Impey or Magnus Cort. The latter is just coming back from illness and we expect this stage to be too hard for him. The former showed good condition in the Tour des Fjords where he finished second twice. Both are fast in a sprint but probably miss the speed to beat the fastest riders in this race.

 

Finally, we have to mention some candidates for a breakaway. As said, it won’t be impossible for an early break to make it. With a flat start, it is hard to predict which riders will be in the early move but with this kind of tough finale, one has to be a good climber to finish it off. Look out for aggressive riders like Cyril Gautier, Thomas Voeckler, Stephen Cummings, Rein Taaramae, Tiesj Benoot, Lars Boom, Björn Thurau, Christophe Riblon, Tony Martin and Laurent Pichon to catch the sprinters by surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Luka Mezgec

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ramunas Navarduaskas, Julian Alaphilippe

Jokers: Kris Boeckmans, Samuel Dumoulin, Kevin Reza, Alexei Tsatevich, Tosh van der Sande, Yannick Martinez, Daniel Oss, Daryl Impey, Magnos Cort, Simon Geschke, Julien Simon, Filippo Pozzato, Cyril Gautier (breakaway), Thomas Voeckler (breakaway), Stephen Cummings (breakaway), Rein Taaramae (breakaway), Tiesj Benoot (breakaway), Lars Boom (breakaway), Björn Thurau (breakaway), Christophe Riblon (breakaway), Tony Martin (breakaway), Laurent Pichon (breakaway)